Just eight teams remain in the hunt for the 2024 premiership.

Some clubs approach finals in peak form at the right time of the year, while others appear shakier than at any other point in the season.

With help from Champion Data, Foxfooty.com.au looks at every 2024 finalist’s biggest strength, weakness and ‘premiership profile’ rating, as well as one player running hot and one out of form.

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SYDNEY SWANS (1st, 17-6, 126.7%)

Past five games: 3-2 (defeated Adelaide by 31 points, defeated Essendon by 39 points, defeated Collingwood by 3 points, lost to Port by 112 points, lost to Western Bulldogs by 39 points).

Strength:Attack

The Swans rank first in the competition for a plethora of important criteria heading into September, which is hardly a surprise given their ultra-dominant start to 2024. John Longmire’s side ranks first in points for, score per inside 50 (at a crazy 49 per cent), points from turnover and points from forward half. And with the likes of superstar midfielders Chad Warner (1.5 goals per game) and Isaac Heeney (1.3) holding their opponents in the engine room ever so honest, the blueprint suggests Sydney will get it done if it all goes to plan. Tom Papley, Justin McInerney and Heeney will all return to play the Giants after missing in Round 24, so the Swans will only get better.

Weakness: Form leading into finals

As high as the Swans flew to start of this season, they fell just as hard before their mini-respite in the last three weeks of the home-and-away season. In the last eight rounds, they ranked 15th for points against from turnover, and 12th each for points against and scoring percentage per inside 50 against. Admittedly, their stats have notably been blown out as a result of their 112-point loss to Port Adelaide, but outside of that they still rank middle of the table for the aforementioned statistics.

Player in hot form: Braeden Campbell

The 22-year-old has seen a sharp rise in form across the last month, and aligned his spike well with Sydney’s resurgence. His AFL player rating has jumped 44 per cent from what it was four rounds ago; more prolific than any of his teammates. The 68-gamer has played 20 out of 23 games, but incredibly may be backs up against the wall to retain his place when teams drop next Thursday night thanks to teammates returning from injury.

Player who needs a lift: Tom McCartin

McCartin’s form has dropped by 62 per cent across the same timeline that Campbell’s has risen, and the Swans will need him back to his best against the competition’s best forward lines. With 129 games of experience spanning across seven seasons, the mid-sized defender will need to lift by Champion Data’s metrics – but given his ever-reliable status down back, there’s no long-lasting concerns here.

Core Four Profile ranking: 3rd

– With the footy: 1st

– Without the footy: 5th

– Clearance: 1st

– Post clearance: 15th

PORT ADELAIDE (2nd, 16-7, 114.8%)

Past five games: 5-0 (defeated Fremantle by 20 points, defeated Adelaide by 22 points, defeated Melbourne by 2 points, defeated Sydney by 112 points, defeated Carlton by 14 points).

Strength:Punish from stoppage

The Power rank the best in the competition for clearance to score, and when paired with their rank of fourth in the league for clearance differential, makes them very dangerous A midfield boasting Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis is scary for any side to come up against; especially when the likes of veterans Ollie Wines and Travis Boak can come in and out of the engine room with ease. If you’re losing at the stoppage to Port Adelaide in finals, watch out!

Weakness:Post clearance

Oddly, it is a different story post-clearance for the Power, who despite their awesome work in contest, rank poorly for contested ball. 16th out of 18 teams is a cause for concern, especially given the increased nature and pressure of finals football. Incredibly, they also rank dead-last in the league for groundball gets – an interesting statistic given how well their forward line can function with their mosquito fleet. That stat itself won’t be enough to ruin their chances of a flag, but the lack of contested ball is.

Player in hot form: Ollie Wines

The 2021 Brownlow Medallist has been red-hot the last four weeks, averaging 26.5 disposals and 5.5 clearances a match – excluding his 10 clearances against Carlton in Round 20, which just fell out of the metrics. His 46 per cent rise in form obviously comes amid Port’s six-game winning streak, and with a dozen games worth of finals experience, is a perfect player to take his game to another level.

Player who needs a lift:Esava Ratugolea

The former Cats form has decreased significantly on the stat sheet in the last month, but it’s very misleading. Ratugolea has recently made a transition up forward in the absence of Charlie Dixon, Jeremy Finlayson and Todd Marshall up forward. With Dixon and Marshall expected to return for the first week of finals, the key tall may float back down to assist Aliir Aliir.

Core Four Profile ranking: 6th

– With the footy: 4th

– Without the footy: 7th

– Clearance: 3rd

– Post clearance: 16th

GEELONG CATS (3rd, 15-8, 112.2%)

Past five games: 4-1 (defeated West Coast by 93 points, lost to St Kilda by 18 points, defeated Fremantle by 11 points, defeated Adelaide by 5 points, defeated North Melbourne by 40 points).

Strength:Defensive profile

Chris Scott’s side prides itself on being structurally sound, and they’ve held that profile throughout 2024. Sitting third in the competition for percentage of clearances to score and fourth for scores per inside 50, they set up their forwards well, and they deliver most of the time. And while not as high up in the league for it, their seventh-placed rank for intercept to score percentage serves them well.

Weakness:Confronted offensively

Challenging offensively has been something of an issue for Chris Scott’s Cats, sitting 14th for the year for intercept-to-score rate and 13th for clearance-to-score rate. Tom Stewart’s move into the midfield in the second half of the season may have somewhat impacted their ability to intercept and convert from the back half.

Player in hot form: Jeremy Cameron

This year’s second place in the Coleman Medal filled his boots in Round 24, but in the weeks leading up to his nine-goal haul he was still very much causing chaos for opposition coaches. A six-goal haul against a fighting Crows outfit in Round 21 also helped them secure a top-four spot, and leaves him at the ready to tear the Power apart on Thursday night. At his absolute best, Cameron is unstoppable and the most valuable player in the league – so they would be stoked to see him hit his straps in the lead up to September.

Player who needs a lift:Mitch Duncan

The two-time premiership Cat has been quiet of late, but his 69 per cent drop in form is mostly due to his role as sub against St Kilda in Round 23. With only 25 per cent game time, it’s no surprise his output dropped so much within Champion Data’s parameters. A quiet nine-disposal game the week before didn’t help either, but Duncan will be a much-needed asset for Scott in their bid for yet another premiership this century.

Core Four Profile ranking: 5th

– With the footy: 7th

– Without the footy: 2nd

– Clearance: 10th

– Post clearance: 7th

GWS GIANTS (4th, 15-8, 109.1%)

Past five games: 4-1 (lost to Western Bulldogs by 37 points, defeated Fremantle by 9 points, defeated Brisbane by 18 points, defeated Western Bulldogs by 2 points, defeated Melbourne by 2 points).

Strength:

Adam Kingsley’s side’s pressure game is comfortably top of the charts among this year’s premiership contenders. The Giants rank first in both pressure rating and pressure differential, indicating their relentless attack on the opposition and refusal to surrender the upper-hand. With the likes of Brent Daniels, captain Toby Greene and the nifty Toby Bedford running around in the attacking half and midfield, GWS are primed to handle the heat in finals better than ever.

Weakness:

GWS’ stoppage profile, in contrast to their pressure, is one of its weaknesses and could be exploited come September — it ranked 17th in the AFL for clearances. Tom Green and Kieran Briggs both managed over 130 clearances to rank in the top dozen across the competition, but besides them, it’s been slim pickings for racking up them up. Finn Callaghan is the only Giant outside of the aforementioned duo to have more than 60 clearances in 2024 (79) – a stark contrast to a team like Sydney who had five with 85 or more.

Player in hot form: Brent Daniels

The pocket rocket’s last month has been exceptional in orange and charcoal, despite missing the final week of the home-and-away season with back soreness. His 42 per cent increase in output is extra impressive given his already high standards, with a personal highlight his mammoth match against Fremantle – knocking up 29 disposals and three goals. Bursts in the midfield have done wonders for both him and his side lately, and will no doubt be utilised against the Swans this weekend.

Player who needs a lift: Harvey Thomas

The crafty young forward has been subbed of his last two matches and played less than 55 per cent game time in both of them, inevitably bringing down his player rating. A five disposal game three rounds ago also didn’t help, but regardless of whether he’s utilised as a sub or starter, Thomas could help give the Giants the spark they need up forward when Daniels is playing in the middle.

Core Four Profile ranking: 6th

– With the footy: 10th

– Without the footy: 10th

– Clearance: 7th

– Post clearance: 3rd

BRISBANE LIONS (5th, 14-1-8, 121.9%)

Past five games: 3-2 (defeated Essendon by 20 points, lost to Collingwood by 1 point, lost to GWS by 18 points, defeated St Kilda by 85 points, defeated Gold Coast by 28 points).

Strength:

The Lions’ star-studded engine room is once again going to hold this side in good stead when the whips are cracking. Over the past eight rounds, Brisbane has ranked first in the competition for contested possession differential, groundball gets differential, and clearance differential. To stop Brisbane in the finals, you need to stop its prolific onballers. Dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale — who donned his fourth All-Australian blazer — will challenge for his third league best-and-fairest, while Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and Cam Rayner culminate a more-than-formidable combination for the opposition to try and combat.

Weakness:

Brisbane’s inaccuracy in front of the big sticks is cause for concern, ranking dead-last in the competition over the past three weeks for shot-at-goal accuracy — managing a measly 35 per cent clip. And in addition, the side have been heavily criticised for ‘selfish’ tendencies in front of the big sticks, which more than likely has played a role in their poor conversion. That being said, multiple Lions personnel have come out before their last home-and-away match saying that such qualms have ben put to bed and resolved; something they’ll certainly hope holds true come the elimination final and beyond.

Player in hot form: Brandon Starcevich

The 25-year-old has been on a heater lately, which is ultra-important given his side’s match up with Carlton’s dynamic duo in Curnow and McKay this week. And while he may not play directly on one of the two key forwards, he’ll play an important role in helping his teammates hold down the fort in their defensive arc. He’s been the man in finals before for Chris Fagan, can he do it again?

Player who needs a lift:Eric Hipwood

The key forward hasn’t had much continuity in recent times, having been thrown down back to help with Brisbane’s injuries in defence as well as his own injury awareness. Subsequently, he’s seen a 44 per cent decrease in form – but more importantly, he’s back fit and firing after two weeks on the sidelines. His presence will need to be felt on the scoreboard this finals series if the Lions are any chance of going all the way, so he’ll need to build on his one goal since returning to the side two games ago.

Core Four Profile ranking: 2nd

– With the footy: 2nd

– Without the footy: 6th

– Clearance: 5th

– Post clearance: 4th

WESTERN BULLDOGS (6th, 14-9, 125.1%)

Past five games: 4-1 (defeated Western Bulldogs by 37 points, defeated North Melbourne by 96 points, lost to Adelaide by 39 points, defeated Melbourne by 51 points, defeated Sydney by 39 points).

Strength:Defence

Luke Beveridge’s side have come storming home in the second half of the season, and their defence stacks up as the best in the business. The Bulldogs rank first in points against from turnover and conceding defensive 50 to inside 50’s transitions. And in addition, they sit third for points against and fourth for conceding scores per inside 50. They are all numbers that stand up very strongly in September, and it has shades of a 2016 run about it – if they can get past Hawthorn in week one of finals.

Weakness:Inaccuracy

It’s a pretty good problem to have, given that everything else at Whitten Oval is flying. In the last six rounds, the Dogs rank 17th in the league for shot at goal accuracy, registering a mere 41 per cent. It’s the kind of stat that can kill sides in finals, but if they can overcome this hurdle, anything is possible for Bevo’s Bulldogs.

Player in hot form: Sam Darcy

It won’t be a shock to most, but the emerging Bulldogs forward has been the best of the best at Whitten Oval of late. His seven-goal haul against North Melbourne just two games ago made up dearly for his 1.5 the week before against Adelaide – which could have been everything. And to see a 52 per cent increase in form despite that level of inaccuracy against the Crows is pretty remarkable. Hawthorn defenders and others beyond the first week of finals… be aware!

Player who needs a lift: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

Oddly, but not totally unsurprisingly, the skyrocket in form for Darcy has seen a decline in a fellow tall forward – Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. His six behinds to go with two goals against Melbourne a month ago would certainly have contributed to his 53 per cent drop in form, but he’s at least getting his hands on the ball registering 10 or more touches in his last seven games, which as a key forward is satisfactory in a forward line with three talls. Built for the big stage, he absolutely can turn it on from the first bounce on Friday night.

Core Four Profile ranking: 1st

– With the footy: 3rd

– Without the footy: 1st

– Clearance: 2nd

– Post clearance: 1st

HAWTHORN (7th, 14-9, 118.5%)

Past five games: 4-1 (defeated North Melbourne by 124 points, defeated Richmond by 63 points, defeated Carlton by 74 points, lost to GWS by 2 points, defeated Adelaide by 66 points).

Strength:Transition

If you wanted an indication of which finalist moves the ball the purest from defence to forward-50, look no further. Since Round 16, Sam Mitchell’s scintillating Hawks rank first in the league for defensive-50-to-forward-50 rate, half-back-to-forward-50 rate, and points from defensive half. They are scary numbers, especially for Bulldogs supporters. There’s an element of slingshot football we see with Mitchell’s side we haven’t seen as regularly from others in 2024 – and make no mistake, on current form, they might just be the most dangerous of them all.

Weakness:Back Six

The Hawks however rank just 12th for score-per-inside-50 against, suggesting there might be a weakness to exploit once the ball goes inside their defensive territory. And with the likes of Ugle-Hagan, Darcy and Aaron Naughton up forward for the Bulldogs, it’s not the perfect side to have those kind of weaknesses against. The Hawks have surprised everyone in 2024, so who’s to say they can’t do it again this September series?

Player in hot form: Jack Gunston

With 13 goals in his last four games and 12 in his last three heading into Round 24, Gunston was arguably (second to Jeremy Cameron) the most in-form forward in the competition. The 32-year-old has found his groove at the perfect time this season, and will be relentlessly chasing a fourth premiership with the support of his mosquito fleet in the forward half. Gunston has an exceptional record in finals, and is the perfect veteran to have in the attacking arc for the brown and gold on the back of an 83 per cent skyrocket in form.

Player who needs a lift:Lloyd Meek

Surprisingly, Champion Data has Lloyd Meek amid a 31 per cent drop in form heading into finals. Match ups in that period against Tristan Xerri, Toby Nankervis and Kieran Briggs makes it understandable why he was more up against it given their physical nature. But it won’t get much easier against Tim English in the first week of finals. All this being said, his lofty standards in 2024 make his drop in rating far less severe than that of others.

Core Four Profile ranking: 4th

– With the footy: 5th

– Without the footy: 8th

– Clearance: 8th

– Post clearance: 2nd

CARLTON (8th, 13-10, 110.2%)

Past five games: 1-4 (lost to St Kilda by 2 points, defeated West Coast by 65 points, lost to Hawthorn by 74 points, lost to Collingwood by 3 points, lost to Port Adelaide by 14 points).

Strength:Stoppage

Carlton’s stoppage profile has again impressed this season, ranking second in contested possession differential, fifth in clearance differential, and fourth in points from clearances. With ball-winning beasts such as Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh at the forefront, you can always rely on Carlton’s hard-faced nature to help get them through finals – much like they did in 2023. Brisbane – led by Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley at stoppage – will be nothing short of a tough match-up, but they’ll be up for the fight like they have been all season.

Weakness:Defence

Unsurprisingly to those that have closely followed the Blues this season, their defensive struggles were clear and will be a key improvement point ahead of another finals campaign. Carlton ranked 14th for points against, 10th for scores-per-inside-50 against, and 16th in points against from clearances — with that last metric especially concerning, as it suggests poor structure behind the ball when it comes in.

Player in hot form: Oliver Hollands

Amid an injury crisis at Ikon Park, second-year player Ollie Hollands has excelled with a greater load of responsibility. Averaging nearly 23 disposals a game in the last three weeks, Hollands has been damaging with ball in hand while also applying continued pressure on the opposition. A dashing youngster with plenty of flare, the 20-year-old will be hoping to go a couple levels better than his first full finals game last season – ironically also against the Lions.

Player who needs a lift:Mitch McGovern

The late out in Round 24 has highlighted for a 34 per cent decrease in his player rating this last month, but that’s not to say he hasn’t been involved. The Blues have all had a very tough month, so it’s not a surprise to see one of their main defenders – who has had so many of his teammates taken away from him in defence through injury – bear the brunt of a decrease in form. With his output compromised, the hopeful return of several key figures will reverse those numbers of McGovern.

Core Four Profile ranking: 9th

– With the footy: 5th

– Without the footy: 12th

– Clearance: 12th

– Post clearance: 7th