The fate of government plans to cap international student enrolments from the start of next year hangs in the balance, with the Coalition yet to announce whether it will support the contentious changes with only two parliament sitting weeks left before the deadline.

Amid the uncertainty, some universities have proceeded with 2025 enrolments, while others have paused international student applications and opened up waitlists under the possibility that the legislation to allow the education minister to set the limits will be passed into law.

University peak bodies say the lack of clarity has led to chaos throughout the sector, as education providers finalise their budgets for the end of the calendar year.

“Right now that legislation isn’t in place, we are entitled to make offers and students are entitled to accept them. They’ve given us indicative numbers but they’re meaningless because they aren’t law,” said Vicki Thomson, chief executive of the Group of 8, which represents Australia’s most prestigious universities.

“What happens if we enrol them and then on the first of January, if this comes in, is it retrospective? We’ve not been able to get a clear answer on that.”

According to Ms Thomson, around 50,000 enrolment offers from Group of 8 members — which includes the University of Sydney, the University of Melbourne and the Australian National University, among others — were already out in August.

It’s unclear how many of those have been accepted. While the Group of 8 universities have not yet rescinded offers, Ms Thomson said depending on what happens over the next fortnight there may come a time when that has to change.

“There is no certainty at the moment about what’s going to happen and that makes it really difficult for universities to set their budgets.”

Labor plans to bring temporary migration numbers back to pre-pandemic levels and crack down on dodgy education providers by limiting the number of international students able to start study in Australia to 270,000 next year.

Under the proposed changes, each higher education and vocational provider will be given their own limit on the number of international students they can enrol, based on a formula that takes into account previous levels of international student commencements and the make-up of their student body.

The bill is scheduled to be debated in the Senate on Monday, with independent senator David Pocock expected to raise 18 amendments, including that the implementation of parts of the laws be delayed by a year.

If the bill is not passed by the end of November, the government will be unable to implement specific international student caps and a controversial regulation known as Ministerial Direction 107 will remain in place.

Sector peak body says damage has been done

Ministerial Direction 107 has been in place since December and requires immigration officials to prioritise applications for students with offers from institutions considered lower risk.

In effect, it means bigger universities have been able to enrol more international students, while some smaller, regional universities have been worse off.

The regulation, which Education Minister Jason Clare called a “de facto limit setter”, has been widely slammed by the sector.

Luke Sheehy, chief executive of Universities Australia, which represents 39 publicly funded universities, said the sector was now at a “fork in the road”, faced with a “terrible option and a not-so-great option”.

He said Ministerial Direction 107 had already wrought damage on the industry and led to 60,000 fewer visas being issued in higher education in six months of this year. 

“The longer Ministerial Direction 107 is in the place, the more damage it will do,” he said.

Mr Sheehy added that the bill still being debated in November had created chaos for universities as they worked to finalise their enrolments for next year.

“What we want is a sector that is bright and is growing. And in terms of this bill, we want to make sure that both sides of politics recognise what they are going to do to our sector over the long run,” he said.

“And we need that certainty and stability.”

Faced with an uncertain future, universities have taken different approaches to managing their intakes. The University of New South Wales, which is set to be one of the providers hardest hit by the caps, has taken “pre-emptive measures” to avoid exceeding their indicative cap.

The university has paused applications and has instead introduced “offer rounds and a waitlist for 2025 international admissions with merit-based offers to be released progressively for programs where there is still availability”, a UNSW Sydney spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, a University of Melbourne spokesperson said they were continuing to make offers to international students “and we are encouraging those students to accept their offer”.

‘It’s time to pass the bill’, minister says

The government has a long list of proposed legislation to get through in the last two sitting weeks of the year, including several bills in the educational portfolio alone.

Ms Thomson wrote to senators on Friday urging them to oppose the bill in its current form, which she said would have “disastrous” consequences for the broader economy.

Instead, she called for public education providers, including universities and TAFEs, to be exempt from powers that would allow international student limits to be set at a provider and course level.

Universities and vocational education providers have so far been given “indicative” figures for their caps. Under those proposed caps, 15 public universities are set to have their international student numbers slashed, while the majority will be able to enrol the same number of students or higher.

Some international students will also be exempt from the caps, such as those enrolled in transnational education or “twinning” arrangements, but it remains unclear how some of the definitions will be applied.

Mr Clare said the government remained committed to the reforms, which would help return migration numbers to pre-pandemic levels.

“The legislation to help us do this has now been in the parliament for more than 180 days,” he said in a statement.

“It’s time to pass the bill, get rid of Ministerial Direction 107 and give international education providers the certainty they need.”

A Labor-led Senate inquiry into the proposed legislation last month recommended that a ministerial power to set the caps down to the course level be scrapped, but that the bill should be passed.