What Australia need to qualify for semis after Afghanistan innings | cricket.com.au

by Admin
June 25, 2024

After Australia’s loss to India, all four teams in Group 1 are still a mathematical chance to progress to the semi-finals

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Updated: For Australia to advance to the semi-finals, Bangladesh need to chase down their target of 116 in 12.2 overs or more.

If Afghanistan defend their total (5-115) they will qualify for the semis where they’ll face South Africa in Trinidad on Wednesday night (10.30am Thursday AEST).

If Bangladesh reach the target of 116 in 12.1 overs or less, they’ll go through to face South Africa.

If Bangladesh reach 119 (by finishing with a four or a six), then they have until 12.3 overs to pass Australia’s net run-rate (NRR). And if they reach 121, by hitting a six when the scores are tied, they have until 12.4 overs.

All of these scenarios are a consequence of Australia’s 24-run loss to India in St Lucia earlier today, which left the Aussies needing a Bangladesh victory in St Lucia to save their T20 World Cup.

Remaining Group 1 Super Eight matches

Afghanistan v Bangladesh, Arnos Vale Stadium, June 25 at 10.30am AEST

World Cup standings

If Bangladesh win

If Bangladesh take care of Afghanistan at Arnos Vale Stadium, three teams, Australia, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, would all have two wins.

Therefore, NRR would decide which of the three progresses. As it stands, Australia have the best NRR of the three, but the margins are fine.

The highest total batting first in the tournament’s five matches at Arnos Vale is Bangladesh’s 5-159 in the first match it hosted on June 14, meaning they’re in with a shot of chasing down Afghanistan’s 5-115.

Bangladesh batting second, chasing Afghanistan’s 5-115

If Bangladesh chase Afghanistan’s total with 47 balls remaining or more, they will jump Australia into second spot in the group. That’s 12.1 overs completed.

Any slimmer margin, or any point after 12.1 overs, will see Australia through to the semi-finals to face South Africa.

However, it’s also possible for Bangladesh’s total to be greater than 116 – if they reach 119 (by finishing with a four or a six), then they have until 12.3 overs to pass Australia’s NRR. And if they reach 121, by hitting a six when the scores are tied, they have until 12.4 overs to jump Australia into second spot.

If Afghanistan win

It’s goodnight for Australia in this scenario as they’d be stuck on one win while India and Afghanistan would progress to the semis on three and two wins respectively.

What happens if there’s a washout?

If the rain in St Vincent (which started falling heavily in the innings break) prevents Bangladesh from facing five overs or more in their chase, it would be enough to send Afghanistan through to the semi-finals as both teams would receive one point, meaning Rashid Khan’s side would go to three points and jump Australia on two.