It’s too close to call at the moment, but either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.

Although the world has history with former president Trump, global challenges have shifted since he was elected in November 2016, which can pave the way for a change in dynamics.

The conflict in the Middle East, Russia’s threat to European security and China’s growing influence on the economy require new decisions and new policies.

The last time Trump was in power, Australia was led by two Liberal prime ministers – Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison.

If Trump is elected this time around, he faces a vastly different Australian leader in Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

As the world faces the prospect of a second Trump term, this is what it could mean for Australia and our biggest interests.

AUKUS – a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US – will continue regardless of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency, according to United States Studies Centre director of economic security Hayley Channer.

“There’s a risk Trump sees AUKUS as a ‘deal’ that can be renegotiated for America’s benefit. But there’s already lots in AUKUS for the US to like,” Channer said.

“AUKUS isn’t just about submarines, it includes developing the technologies of the future – like AI, hypersonics and quantum computing. 

“They’ve also committed to reinforce their national defence industry bases and that’s really needed at the moment. 

“It wouldn’t make sense for the US to walk away from cooperating on things that are still a major priority.”

Close allies of Trump have also voiced support for the AUKUS partnership, including his former national security advisor Robert O’Brien.

Trump’s own vice presidential candidate JD Vance told the Lowy Institute in February that he was a “fan of AUKUS”.

The economic flow-on effects of a Trump presidency are more difficult to predict.

Trump has suggested a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and tariffs of between 10 per cent and 20 per cent for the rest of the world, which Channer said “could spark a trade war that could worsen inflation globally”. 

“This would make goods more expensive to produce,” she said.

One sector holding its breath over a possible Trump victory is the Australian grain industry.

“With approximately 65 per cent of Australian grain exported each year, global markets are essential to the industry’s success,” industry body GrainGrowers said in its recent report.

“However, this reliance on international trade also exposes Australian growers to external shocks and events beyond their control.”

Indo-Pacific region in the spotlight

Australia and Japan are among the closest allies to the US in the Indo Pacific region.

“Not only are we the US’ closest allies in the region but we have lots to offer the US strategically and economically – so we’re likely to fare better than other countries, whether it’s Trump or Harris,” Channer said.

“The region has experienced a Trump presidency before, so countries will already be very familiar with his style of operating.

“They’ll all have plans in place to engage either a Trump or Harris administration.”