Jubin Raju has adapted well to life in Gippsland despite average temperatures being about 10 degrees colder than his native Kerala.

“[It’s] a bit windy and chilly but it’s all good,” the 20 year-old international student said.

“I’m loving it and go with my cousins on Sunday to play cricket — if it’s good weather, that is.”

The nursing student has been working as a personal care assistant to gain experience in his field.

He said he loved the smaller class sizes and support offered at his regional university.

But he said he was concerned about the many changes the federal government was implementing for international students in a bid to reduce migration, including a sudden increase to financial capacity requirements, shortening postgraduate visas, and more rigid limits on international student enrolments.

“It cannot be definite by the things happening right now, so you won’t know what will happen after your course is finished.”

The federal government has not given numbers on its incoming cap on international students and what the limits would be for each university.

Mr Raju said while the cap wouldn’t affect him given he was already studying in Australia, it would be a challenge for future students.

“When the opportunity is smaller then you have to fight for that space, so that will be much harder,” he said.

Job cuts blamed on visa refusals

Mr Raju, who is from a small city in South Asia, said he hoped to work in Australia after his studies.

His aspirations are those of a typical international student profile for his university.

Federation University’s vice chancellor and president has pointed to visa refusals as the primary cause of last week’s announcement that the university would cut about 10 per cent of its staff.

Professor Duncan Bentley said international student numbers were recovering after pandemic restrictions, when a change in Home Affairs policy led to a “risk-based approach” that increased visa refusals and disproportionately affected students applying for regional universities.

“We dropped by $80 million in revenue, and that’s had a direct impact on our ability to fund our staffing complement,” he said.

Federation University had a 50 per cent drop in international students between 2019 and 2023.

It has started slashing more than 100 positions.

“A lot of our students come from some of the smaller cities now in the subcontinent, a lot of them might be small and medium sized enterprises,” Dr Bentley said.

He said families running small businesses were more likely to struggle with financial capacity requirements for liquid funds.

He said that was in contrast to families with “high salaried parents” from big cities who were more likely to look to metropolitan universities.

“Students who come from those sorts of [small business] families are not going to be able to get into Australia as easily as they did before,” he said.

Dr Bentley said Federation University had been working with the Department of Home Affairs to adjust its pricing, academic requirements and course availability to reduce visa refusal rates.

He said positives would come from the impending cap on international students and “preliminary indications of a domestic student cap and redistribution”.

“It’s basically designing the market for students so that we optimise the use of the wonderful universities we’ve got across Australia to make sure that they all have an appropriate number of students,” he said.

“Two or three years down the track, I’m hopeful that the visa settings and the domestic cap settings will help us.”

Regional universities hardest hit

The overwhelming majority of international students have chosen to study in cities.

Regional Universities Network chief executive Alec Webb, whose organisation represents Federation and six other universities, said 14 per cent of its student cohort were international students.

He said that was half of the sector average.

He said lost international student revenue had disproportionately affected institutions in his network, citing a 61 per cent drop from 2019 to 2022.

The average decline across the sector was 16 per cent.

Mr Webb said visa issues, pandemic impacts and regional education immigration pathways contributed to the increased decline rate.

“It really comes down to that target market,” he said.

“Students that wanted to come to Australia to study [on campus] — whether that is to explore opportunities to remain in Australia post-graduation through various schemes that the government operate — they have not returned at the same rate as the students who were willing to study online.”

When it came to the impending cap on international students, Mr Webb said the devil was in the detail.

“It’s probably a little too early for me speculate,” he said.

Charles Sturt University is also a member of Regional Universities Network.

Like Federation University, it relies on the international student intake at metropolitan campuses to fund its regional ones.

Pro vice-chancellor international Mike Ferguson said international students at Charles Sturt made up just 3 per cent of its student body — a number the university hoped to grow.

“So we’re very concerned about [the student cap],” he said.

Students victim to ‘politicians’ tricks’

A mature-aged student affected by recent migration policy changes said she felt caught in a political game.

The Chinese student based in regional Victoria, who did not wish to be named, said she would no longer be eligible for a postgraduate work visa under the new age restrictions to come into effect next week.

“Maybe for international students … it’s not a good time to study here,” she said.

She said it was misleading to link international student numbers with the housing crisis.

She said the government’s cap on international students risked damaging the workforce in a way that was hard to quickly undo.

“Internationals choose Australia and Australia chooses international students, it’s a mutual option,” she said.

“It’s a good opportunity to attract talent and also for the long-term, stable and skilled labours.

“I hope the government and policy development could consider a bit more for the long-term, healthy development of Australia.”

The Department of Home Affairs has been contacted for comment.