Johns Hopkins University think tank the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab said following Trump’s election that a US retreat on clean energy policy could open up an $80 billion opportunity for international markets.

Australia’s Investor Group on Climate Change, a coalition of 104 local and global funds including AustralianSuper, HESTA, BlackRock, Fidelity and Vanguard, has said its members could enjoy greater green technology investment opportunities if Trump pulled back on the subsidies on offer in the US.

However, Grattan Institute energy and climate change deputy program director Alison Reeve said Trump might not live up to his rhetoric on the IRA because many projects were located in Republican states, potentially pressuring him to maintain investment and jobs.

What’s more, global hydrogen demand could shrink dramatically if Trump delivered on his vow to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change and cancelled US emissions reduction targets, and other countries responded by reducing their green ambitions.

The Albanese government has declared it wants to turn Australia into a hydrogen superpower and pledged $2 billion in funding for the nascent industry, backed with an expected $6 billion or more in tax credits for companies that enter large-scale commercial production.

Despite this support, no green hydrogen production is under way and the industry has suffered various setbacks.

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Mining magnate Andrew Forrest has cut hundreds of jobs in his business and ditched his hydrogen production target as the company focuses on bringing down the cost of production, while Origin Energy has abandoned its hydrogen ventures, including its proposed Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub in Newcastle.

Reeve said a correction to the initial optimism about hydrogen’s prospects had been coming for some time “as some of the projects have figured out that hydrogen is a little harder than they were expecting”.

She said that to be considered likely, projects must have funding for construction and buyers lined up for their hydrogen.