India became the first team to beat Australia in a Test match at the Optus Stadium in Perth, that too by a whopping 295 runs. As a result, they displaced Australia at the top of the points table, with a points percentage (PCT) of 61.11. Australia, meanwhile, dropped to 57.69, not too far ahead of Sri Lanka (55.56), New Zealand (54.55), and South Africa (54.17).

Matches left in WTC 2023-25

India: Four Tests in Australia
Australia: Four Tests against India at home, two Tests in Sri Lanka

WTC final qualification scenarios

A 5-0 win will take India to 69.30, 4-1 to 64.04, 3-2 to 58.77, a 2-3 defeat to 53.51, and a 1-4 defeat to 48.25. A drawn Test here or there will alter these numbers somewhat. The first two scenarios should see India through. The last two will almost certainly eliminate them. It is the third outcome (58.77) that is worth checking.

If India win 3-2 and finish on 58.77, Australia will end the series on 55.88. If they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka after that, Australia will finish on 60.53.

This will be inadequate for both sides. A 3-0 win against England will take New Zealand to 64.29. South Africa have four Tests left: if they win even three of these and lose one, they will reach 61.11, eliminating both Australia and India.

However, to overtake both Australia and India, New Zealand will have to win all three Tests. A 2-0 win will take them to 59.52 and no further.

What about Sri Lanka? A 1-1 draw in South Africa and a 2-0 win against Australia will take them to 61.54 (while keeping South Africa on 61.11). With 58.77, India will be unable to qualify in that case (remember, New Zealand can reach 59.52 even if they lose once).

Even a 3-1 win (in other words, one drawn Test in Australia) will take India to only 60.53. A 3-0 win (an unlikely scenario, given that there has been only one drawn Test in 2024) will, however, propel them to 61.54, just clear of South Africa’s 61.11 (if they win thrice in four Tests).

Australia’s scenario is relatively simpler. Five wins in six Tests will take them to 65.79 and four wins to 60.53, while they may go to 61.11 with four wins and a draw.

To sum up, to be as good as certain of a berth in the final, India need three wins in four Tests and Australia four wins and a draw in six.

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