Look out! Short odds have returned to the betting boards for the Zozo Championship. The FedEx Cup Fall’s premiere purse ($8.5 million) takes us to Japan for a 72-hole, no-cut tournament. Eight Presidents Cup players are competing, including Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama and defending champion Collin Morikawa. Schauffele starts the board at +450 and followed closely by Matsuyama and Morikawa—all with single digit odds.

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After JT Poston just delivered in Vegas following a two-month break, we have to take the top of this board seriously. Those short odds offer little strategy, but on a positive note, they also increase the odds for the remainder of the field. This is the sixth edition of the championship, and five have been played at Accordia Golf National Country Club in Chiba, Japan. This venue has awarded some serious winners starting with Tiger Woods in 2019. Collin, Keegan Bradley, and Hideki Matsuyama are also on the winner’s plaque. (Ignore the 2020 edition: Patrick Cantlay won the ZOZO stateside during the pandemic.)

Watch our Monday Odds Drop video below for the 2024 ZOZO Championship:

A significant outright edge can be found when you look at strokes gained/ball-striking. The combination of SG/off the tee (OTT) and approach is a specific indicator for success at this venue. With an average winning score of 16-under par, players must keep the ball in play to score and save par. These leaderboards have been buoyed by ball-strikers in all four editions. This is why I’m fading Min Woo Lee (33-1) this week. Lee can cook off the tee and is one of the top 5 drivers on tour, but his approach game falls quite short of his tee-ball success.

Lee has lost strokes to the field in six of his last seven starts. AGNCC requires players to exhibit expert proximity control. Unlike Min Woo, Kurt Kitayama’s (30-1) iron game is on point. The brilliant ball-striker has gained an average of six strokes (+5.8) on the field over his last five starts. Kitayama does struggle with the putter, but Accordia has rewarded some very average putters with a win. After a T-25 in Utah and T-9 in Vegas, Kurt can close the deal in Japan.

In two Zozo starts, Kitayama has finished T-29 and T-16. Off-the-tee and approach acumen is an edge this week and keeping it in play is Kitayama’s specialty. I’m taking the talented tee-to-green player on Monday following the Odds Drop.

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.

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